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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.